Politics
Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?
5¢
Yes
The market gives this a 5% chance.
Market price history. From 53¢ on Dec 12, 2025 to 5¢ on Aug 20, 2026. Lowest 5¢ on Aug 12, 2026; highest 78¢ on Dec 18, 2025.
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About this market
If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.