Economy
Will there be a recession in 2026?
7¢
Yes
The market gives this a 7% chance.
Market price history. From 42¢ on Jul 15, 2025 to 5¢ on Aug 19, 2026. Lowest 5¢ on Aug 3, 2026; highest 42¢ on Jul 15, 2025.
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About this market
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.