Health
Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030?
5¢
Yes
The market gives this a 5% chance.
Market price history. From 20¢ on Dec 19, 2024 to 5¢ on Aug 18, 2026. Lowest 3¢ on Apr 3, 2026; highest 25¢ on Dec 20, 2024.
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About this market
If there is any year between 2024 and 2029 in which there are zero reported wild cases of poliovirus 1, then the market resolves to Yes.