Weather
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
40¢
Yes
The market gives this a 40% chance.
Market price history. From 50¢ on May 25, 2025 to 39¢ on Aug 20, 2026. Lowest 24¢ on Jun 4, 2025; highest 77¢ on Jul 24, 2026.
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About this market
If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in Japan or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.