Weather
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
40¢
Yes
The market gives this a 40% chance.
Market price history. From 50¢ on May 25, 2025 to 40¢ on Aug 17, 2026. Lowest 24¢ on May 30, 2025; highest 97¢ on Aug 25, 2025.
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About this market
If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in Japan or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.