Weather
Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
5¢
Yes
The market gives this a 5% chance.
Market price history. From 11¢ on Jan 2, 2026 to 8¢ on Aug 17, 2026. Lowest 4¢ on Jul 28, 2026; highest 18¢ on Jan 16, 2026.
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About this market
If there is at least an earthquake of 8 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.